Tensions abated somewhat after Tehran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian civilian airliner on January 8, mistaking it for a hostile US missile. The outbreak of the coronavirus in Iran and its neighbors also took attention away from US-Iran strains.
However, a second spate of tit-for-tat attacks occurred in March, leading to the death of two more Americans and a British citizen, as well as three Iraqi soldiers, an Iraqi civilian, and several militia members. US forces have now been withdrawn from three isolated outposts in Iraq and consolidated in the relatively safe Kurdish city of Erbil and at the al-Assad air base outside Baghdad.
The United States also brought in Patriot missile batteries to defend these bases against militia rockets. This author has argued elsewhere that the decision to kill Soleimani and Muhandis was an overreaction to Iranian provocations that would make a long-term US military presence in Iraq very difficult—if not untenable. Overnight, the issue became the United States, not Iran. However, it is still possible to retain US influence in Iraq and to offer Iraqis an alternative to complete domination by Iran.
Iran is more, not less, aggressive in the region, continuing its development of ballistic missiles—including its first successful satellite launch—and has accelerated its nuclear program. More pressure will either lead to war, strengthen Iranian hardliners, or both. Even a botched initial response to the coronavirus does not appear to have increased the chances for regime change.
The United States could use the pandemic as an opportunity to make goodwill gestures toward Iran. While the Iranian government has rebuffed such offers, they resonate with the Iranian people, whose views of America and its citizens have historically been much more positive. Iran should, also, be allowed to receive the emergency loan it requested from the International Monetary Fund and have access to revenue frozen in foreign banks for medical supplies.
It has successfully inserted its Shia militias into the fabric of Iraq's security establishment, and its allies have a powerful voice in parliament. Syria's civil war has opened the door for a major Iranian military presence there, while next door in Lebanon Iran's ally Hezbollah has become the most potent force in the country. Iran is playing the long game. Its leaders hope that if it keeps up the pressure, both overt and covert, it will eventually make the Middle East a region not worth America's effort to stay engaged in, militarily.
Hence the frequent rocket attacks on US bases and Iran's support for civil protest calling for US troops to leave. An agreement that sees the end of US combat operations in Iraq will be seen by many in Tehran as a step in the right direction. Iraqis suffer as US-Iran shadow war shifts gear. America now has only about 2, regular troops left in Iraq.
This video can not be played To play this video you need to enable JavaScript in your browser. Islamic State 2. Iran-backed militias in Iraq are suspected of carrying out a recent drone strike on Irbil airbase. It's a lot less likely, for several reasons.
Iran's long game. Image source, AFP. It is unclear how many of those forces will be considered combat troops and subject to redeployment, or when the next technical talks on redeployment will take place. The agreement does not spell out a date for withdrawal, or requirements for troop numbers to reach a certain point by a certain time, Kirby said. Eventually, he explained, the nations will determine the appropriate time to redeploy combat troops and what the footprint of any remaining forces will look like.
The U. And we're continuing as we have been, even before today's talks, to talk with the Iraqi government about what that mission and that footprint will look like. Kirby said he expects that Iraqi forces will be much more able to withstand future incursions than they were in , as ISIS tore across the nation. When the U. But in the wake of America's departure, he said, Iraqi forces weren't managed well enough to keep that combat capability in place; the force became more sectarian and wasn't able to effectively fight back against ISIS.
And while ISIS remains dangerous, Kirby said, it is also a much diminished threat from what it was seven years ago in terms of size, capability, competence, resourcing and recruiting ability. Territorially, he said, ISIS holds virtually no ground anymore. They are a vastly better force than they were before. Follow him on Twitter StephenLosey. Two Russian Tu strategic bombers reportedly practiced bombing runs at the Ruzany firing range, about 37 miles east of the
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